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长篇大论:为何中国军队仅仅是一条纸龙

作者:dafa足球工作室 时间:2015-01-13 16:24 
孤叶工作室

-------------译者:横一文字-审核者:文所未闻------------

orruption, bad neighbors, inflation, and a demographic time bomb — these are just a few of Beijing's woes

腐败、不友好的邻居、通货膨胀,和人口定时炸弹——这些仅仅是当前的北京所面临的困境的一小部分。

It looks imposing, but…

In appearance it is very powerful, but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of — it is a paper tiger. — Mao Zedong on the United States, 1956

表面看上去很强大,但实际上没什么好怕的——只不过是一个纸老虎——毛泽东在1956年发表的对于美国的看法。
(“我们说美帝国主义是纸老虎,是从战略上来说的。从整体上来说,要轻视它。从每一局部来说,要重视它。它有爪有牙。要解决它,就要一个一个地来。比如它有十个牙齿,第一次敲掉一个,它还有九个,再敲掉一个,它还有八个。牙齿敲完了,它还有爪子。一步一步地认真做,最后总能成功。”——《美帝国主义是纸老虎》(一九五六年七月十四日)《毛泽东选集》第五卷)  

China's rise over the past 30 years has been nothing short of spectacular. After decades of double-digit growth, today China is the world's second largest economy — and possesses an increasingly sophisticated military that's among the planet's most powerful. Despite China bordering a number of unstable countries, its borders are secure

中国在过去三十年里取得了惊人的进步。在经历数十年两位数的经济增长之后,今天中国已经成为世界第二大经济体——并且拥有了一支快速增长的复杂军队,属于这个星球上最强大力量的其中之一。尽管中国周边有一些动荡的国家,它的边界依然是安全的。

That wasn't always the case. In 2,000 years, China has suffered invasions, revolutions, and humiliations from the outside world — plus its own internal rebellions. It has been brutalized, conquered, and colonized.

但事实并不会总是如此。在过去的2000年里,中国遭受了入侵,革命,和外部的羞辱——再加上自己的内部叛乱。所以中国被残酷压迫过、被征服过、被殖民过。

-------------译者:Bryan-审核者:文所未闻-----------

No longer. China's defense spending has increased tenfold in 25 years. Beijing is building a powerful blue-water navy, developing stealth fighters, and carefully experimenting with peacekeeping and expeditionary operations.

今非昔比,中国的国防支出在25年间增长了十倍。中国正在建立一支强大的海军,发展隐形飞机,并且尝试着派兵海外维和和远征

China's military buildup, along with an aggressive foreign policy, has inspired a fair amount of alarm in the West. Some American policymakers consider Beijing to be Washington's only "near-peer competitor" — in other words, the only country with the military might to actually beat the U.S. military in certain circumstances.

伴随着积极的对外政策,中国的军队建设在西方国家中引起了相当大的警觉。一些美国政策决定者认为中国是美国唯一近乎旗鼓相当的竞争对手--换句话说,是在某些情况下能打败美国军队的唯一国家。

But they're wrong. Even after decades of expensive rearmament, China is a paper dragon — a version of what Mao Zedong wrongly claimed the United States was … in 1956.

然而他们错了。即使中国经过了近十年昂贵的军备重整,中国还是一只纸龙--这个说法是毛泽东在1956年错误的形容美国的。

China's military budget has grown by double-digits year after year, but inflation has eaten away at the increases. China's army, navy, air force, and missile command are wracked by corruption — and their weapons are, by and large, still greatly inferior to Western equivalents.

中国的军备预算以每年两位数的比率在增长,但是通货膨胀抵消了其实际增长。中国的陆军,海军,空军和导弹部队指挥层深受腐败困扰--并且他们的武器从总体上说比西方国家逊色得多。

-------------译者:Bryan-审核者:文所未闻------------

Yes, the People's Liberation Army is slowly becoming more technologically advanced. But that doesn't mean Beijing can mobilize its armed forces for global missions. Unlike the world's main expeditionary powers — the United States and the U.K., to name two — China is surrounded by potential enemies.

是的,人民解放军在科技上越来越先进。但是这并不意味着中国能把势力延伸到国际事务上。不像世界上主要的对外扩张势力--美国和英国--中国被潜在的敌人包围着。

Russia, Japan, and India are all neighbors … and historic adversaries. China's aggressive foreign policy targeting smaller states isn't encouraging submission but resistance, as countries such as The Philippines and Vietnam ally with the United States, Japan, and India.

俄罗斯,日本和印度都是中国的邻国,也是历史上的敌对国。中国针对较小国家的侵略性对外政策并不能让他国屈服,而是激起了他们的抵抗,像菲律宾和越南都与美国,日本和印度结盟。

China's other neighbors are weak or failed states, such as Pakistan and North Korea. Their instability — or their outright collapse — could have serious security repercussions for China, and help explain why Beijing lavishes funds on its armed forces.

中国的其他领国都是比较弱小或者失败的国家,比如巴基斯坦和朝鲜。他们的不稳定--或者完全的崩溃--会对中国的安全带来极大威胁,这就可以解释中国为什么会在其军事力量上出手阔绰了。

-------------译者:Bryan-审核者:文所未闻------------

Order of battle

战斗序列



(Andy Wong - Pool/Getty Images)
China has the world's largest military, with no fewer than 2.3 million men and women in uniform. Another 800,000 people serve in China's reserves and militias.

中国有世界上数量最多的军队,有230万以上的在役军人。另外有800000的预备役和民兵。

The PLA ground forces number 1.25 million men and women divided into 18 group armies, each similar to an American corps. Each army consists of three to five infantry and mechanized divisions — China has only one tank division.

中国人民解放军地面部队总计125万人被编入18个集团军,每个都相当于美国一个军团。每个集团军都包含3到5 个步兵兵团和机械化兵团--中国只有一个坦克兵团。

These ground troops are mostly for homeland defense. For power projection outside its borders, China has three airborne divisions, two marine divisions, and three marine brigades. Major equipment includes more than 7,000 tanks and 8,000 artillery pieces.

这些地面部队主要负责国土守卫。中国有3个空降师,2个海军兵团和3个海军陆战旅,这些可投放到境外作战。主要装备包括7000多辆坦克和8000多门火炮。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:文所未闻------------

China's navy commands 255,000 sailors and 10,000 marines. The People's Liberation Army Navy is divided into the North, East, and South Seas Fleets, together possessing one aircraft carrier, 23 destroyers, 52 frigates, 49 diesel attack submarines, and five nuclear attack subs. China has at least three Jin-class ballistic missile submarines, representing Beijing's nuclear deterrent at sea.

中国的海军统率25.5万水兵和1万海军陆战队。人民解放军海军被分为北海、东海、和南海舰队,总计一艘航空母舰,23艘驱逐舰,52艘护卫舰,49艘柴油动力攻击型潜艇,5艘核动力攻击型潜艇。中国还有至少3艘晋级弹道导弹核潜艇,代表着北京的海上核威慑力量。

The People's Liberation Army Air Force has 330,000 active personnel spread out over 150 air and naval aviation bases. The PLAAF and naval air arm of the PLAN together possess 1,321 fighter and attack aircraft — including hundreds of J-7s, pictured — plus 134 heavy bombers and tankers and 20 airborne early warning planes. China also operates more than 700 combat helicopters.

解放军空军力量有33万作战人员分布在150个空军和海航基地。解放军的空军和海航总共掌握着1321架战斗机和攻击机——包括数百架j-7s,134架重型轰炸机,加油机和20架早期预警机。中国还拥有超过700架作战直升机。

Unique to the PLA is the Second Artillery Corps, a separate branch of the military in charge of land-based conventional and nuclear missiles. The Second Artillery includes between 90,000 and 120,000 personnel divided into six missiles brigades.

第二炮兵是解放军中独特的兵种,这个军队的分支掌握着路基常规导弹和核导弹。第二炮兵人员总数在9万到12万之间,并分布于6个导弹旅。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:文所未闻------------

The Second Artillery fields more than 1,100 conventional short-range ballistic missiles with ranges of 1,000 kilometers or less, another 300 or so conventional medium-range ballistic missiles, and an estimated 120 long-range nuclear ballistic missiles.

第二炮兵拥有超过1100枚射程在1000公里内的近程弹道导弹,另外有300枚左右的中程常规弹道导弹和大约120枚长程核导弹

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated China's 2013 defense budget at $188 billion dollars. That's about nine percent of global military spending and just under half of all spending in Asia. The same year, the United States spent $640 billion on defense, Russia $88 billion, India $47 billion, and Japan $48 billion.

瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所估计中国2013年的国防预算为1880亿美元。这大约占全世界军事支出的9%,并只比亚洲总支出的一半低一点。同年,美国支出为6400亿,俄罗斯880亿,印度470亿,日本480亿

Yes, China's spending seems like a lot. But it's not, really — especially considering how dangerous China's corner of the world can be.

是的,中国的国防支出看似很多。但不是这样的——特别是考虑到中国处在的地区是多么的危险。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:文所未闻------------

Unenviable position

一个不值得羡慕的地理位置



(Feng Li/Getty Images)
It's probably difficult to walk through Beijing's most prosperous neighborhoods or Shanghai's glittering streets and grasp that you are in a country that borders three of the most unstable places in the world — Pakistan, Afghanistan, and North Korea.

走过北京最兴旺的地区或上海繁华街道,你也许很难意识到这个国家毗邻三个世界上最动荡的地方——巴基斯坦,阿富汗,北朝鲜。

After thousands of years of incursions and invasions, China has finally built up strong borders. Beijing is doing a good job of maintaining peace and relative prosperity in a rough, impoverished neighborhood.

在经过几千年的扩张和入侵之后,中国最终建立了一个坚固的边界。在与野蛮贫穷的国家毗邻的情况下,北京在维护和平与建设相对繁荣的国家上做得很好。

"China's land borders have never been more secure than they are today," M. Taylor Fravel, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told War is Boring.

“中国的陆地边界从没有像现在这么安全”麻省理工学院政治学副教授M. Taylor Fravel如是说。

-------------译者:不拉几-审核者:rumor四起------------

"Although disputes with Bhutan and India remain, China no longer faces the prospect of a significant threat on land," Fravel continued. "Clashes could occur on the border with India, but they would be contained by geography and unlikely to escalate into a wider war."

“尽管与不丹和印度的争端依旧,中国不再面对严重的陆上威胁,” Fravel 继续说道。 “中印边境上有冲突的可能,但由于地理的限制而不太可能升级为大规模战争。”

This hasn't always been the case. Invaded by the Mongols, the Russians, Western colonialists, and most recently Japan, China suffered greatly at the hands of outsiders for millennia. Given this history, it makes sense that Beijing would want strong defenses.

过去的情况并不是一直如此。蒙古、俄国、西方殖民者以及最近的日本,千年来这些外来者的手给中国造成了巨大的伤害。回溯历史,北京想要强大的国防十分合理。

Vietnam fought China in 1979 and killed 9,000 People's Liberation Army troops in a single month. Japan's occupation of China in the 1930s and '40s killed millions of Chinese. India fought China as recently as 1962. China and Russia waged a short, undeclared war in 1969.

1979年越南在与中国的冲突中一个月杀死了9000PLA。1930和40年代日本的占领,杀害了数百万中国人。近至1962年,印度和中国发生冲突。 1969年,中俄之间爆发了短暂的低调的战事。

-------------译者:长风度玉门-审核者:rumor四起------------

China borders 14 countries, tying Russia for the most neighbors. But while many of Russia's neighbors are peaceful — Estonia, Finland, Norway, and Latvia come to mind — China borders Afghanistan, North Korea, Myanmar, and Pakistan. Two of these states have nuclear weapons.

中国有十四个邻国,和俄罗斯并列为有最多邻国的国家。但是俄罗斯的多数邻国是和平的,爱沙尼亚,芬兰,挪威,拉脱维亚——而中国比邻阿富汗,北韩,缅甸,巴基斯坦。它们中有两个是拥有和武器的。

North Korea is particularly dangerous. Not only does it practice diplomacy through spontaneous violence, it has nukes. Nobody knows when — or if — the North Korean government will collapse, but the idea of 24 million starving people suddenly finding themselves without a government is a frightening one for Beijing.

北韩是特别危险的,它不仅实行激进的外交政策,而且拥有核武器。当——或者假如北韩政府崩溃,两千四百万没有政府的、饥饿的难民,是北京最恐惧的事情之一。

Last year we found out China has contingency plans to deal with a post-collapse North Korea. That would likely involve the PLA moving into North Korea to set up a buffer zone. Perhaps in reaction to this disclosure, Pyongyang described Beijing as a "turncoat and an enemy."

去年我发现中国已经有了处理北韩突然崩溃的应急方案。方案可能包括解放军开进北韩设立缓冲区,或者还包括当平壤公然宣称北京是变节者和敌人的时候的应急反应。

China is experiencing a prolonged period of peace and prosperity unprecedented in its modern history. At the same time, its neighborhood headaches are as numerous as ever. That's one good reason China's military budget is $188 billion a year and rising.

中国希望在她的现代化进程中拥有前所未有的持续的和平与繁荣的环境。同时,它周边的头痛事仍一如既往的多,对于军事预算高达1880亿美元并在持续增长的中国来说,这是一个好理由。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:rumor四起------------

All alone

孤立无援



(China Photos/Getty Images)
At the same time, China is remarkably lacking in real, dependable allies. In the Pacific alone, the United States can count Japan, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, and The Philippines as close allies — and maintains cordial relations with others including Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

同时,中国明显缺少真正的,可靠的盟友。而美国仅仅在太平洋这一边,就有包括日本、台湾、澳大利亚、韩国、新西兰和菲律宾等亲密盟友,并与马来西亚、越南和印尼保持友好的关系。

China's list of allies in the Pacific, on the other hand, is a short one. Russia. Globally, China's allies include Pakistan, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. All are despotic or near-despotic states, many are unstable and many have long records of human rights abuses.

另一方面的,中国在太平洋地区的盟友却只有一个俄罗斯。放眼全球,中国的盟友包括巴基斯坦、津巴布韦、委内瑞拉,和那些上海合作组织成员国——巴基斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦。全部属于专制或者接近专制状态的国家,大多数不稳定并有长期侵犯人权的记录。

Beijing embraces its worst neighbors in part to keep them in check. This worked with Pakistan, but failed with North Korea. In Myanmar, China cozied up with the oppressive military regime only for it to suddenly open up and seek ties with the West and Japan. China's net gain was years of condemnation for supporting the junta — which is to say, a net loss.

北京拥抱这些最糟糕的邻居,在一定程度上掌控他们。这在巴基斯坦起作用,但在北朝鲜却毫无用处。在缅甸,中国和其军政府素有来往,这种情况结束源于缅甸突然向西方和日本开放并寻求合作。而中国换来的是多年来都被谴责支持军政府——也就是说,中国在这方面吃了亏。

-------------译者:hongweimax-审核者:rumor四起------------

Where China has really failed, however, is in simply getting along with nearby countries. Before the recent confrontation with The Philippines over the Ayungin Shoal, relations between Manila and Beijing had never been better. The same went for much of Southeast Asia before China declared sovereignty over 90 percent of the South China Sea.

但是,中国失败的地方仅仅在于未能与周边国家处好关系。 在最近与菲律宾因仁爱礁发生冲突之前, 中菲关系处于前所未有的良好状态。 与东南亚国家的关系在中国宣布对南海超过90%的海域拥有主权之前同样如此。

Even relations with Japan, China's historical enemy, were cordial if staid.

甚至于日本, 中国历史上的敌人,之间的关系,如果慎重处理的话也能保持友好

Sometime around 2010, Beijing decided to stop playing nice. China began pushing long-dormant territorial claims — and tried its hardest to split the alliance between Japan and the U.S. China's relations with pretty much every country in East and Southeast Asia have chilled.

大约在2010年前后, 北京决定停止扮演好孩子。 中国开始主张很长时间以来暂时搁置的边界领土的主权声明。 并且尽力来破坏美日的同盟关系。 中国与东亚和东南亚每一个国家的关系都开始变冷。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:rumor四起------------

It's hard to say what China really hoped to gain. Some argue that China is attempting to "Finlandize" smaller Asian states — that is, intimidate them into expressing neutrality in order to deny them to the Americans. Others argue that China wanted those disputed territories but also fundamentally has a problem with treating other countries as equals.

这很难说中国真正想要得到的是什么。有的认为中国想要使更小的亚洲国家“芬兰化”【译者注:芬兰化指 使某国或政府在对某方面采取和解或中立的政策 】,也就是说,恐吓他们表达中立,使他们拒绝美国。有的认为中国想得到那些争议领土,但都这样对待其他有争议的国家却是一个难题。

Whatever the case, China's recent actions have left it largely friendless. Today its most important relationships with other countries are strictly economic in nature.

无论如何,中国最近的举动让他几乎没有朋友。现在他与其他国家最重要的关系就只是纯经济领域了.

This has obvious implications for China's military posture. While the U.S. Navy can sail across the Pacific and call on practically dozens of ports, China's warships can sail just outside its territorial waters and, other than the Russian port of Vladivostok, have nowhere to go.

这对中国的军事形势有明显的影响。当美国海军横渡太平洋并访问几十个港口的时候,中国的战舰除了到俄罗斯海参崴港外,只能在领海周围航线,就没有其他地方可去了。

This places China at an enormous strategic disadvantage. Beijing has no allies to provide bases, share burdens, pool intelligence, or lend moral support.

中国在这个方面存在巨大战略劣势。北京没有盟友提供基地,分担负担,共享情报,或者声援都没有。

-------------译者:Bryan-审核者:rumor四起------------

Race with inflation

同通贷赛跑



(ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images)
Since 1990, China's defense spending has swelled by at least 10 percent annually, resulting in a tenfold overall budget increase in just 24 years. Some observers point to China's seemingly huge military outlays as evidence of sinister intent.

从1990年开始,中国的国防开支以每年至少10%的速率增长,其结果是在24年间预算翻了十倍。一些观察者指出中国看似巨大增长的军备开支是其邪恶意图的证据。

But the budget boosts aren't nearly as big as they seem.

但是预算的剧增并没有他们所看见的那么巨大。

China's economic growth over the past two and a half decades has been meteoric, and has allowed the country to spend more on a modern military. But as a proportion of its economy, China's defense budget is in line with international norms.

在过去的25年间中国的经济发展迅猛,这使得其有能力为建设一支现代化军队花费更多。但就所占经济总量的比例来说,中国的国防预算还是处于国际正常水平。

And if you take into account inflation, China's real increase in defense spending is actually in the single digits annually — hardly the massive influx of cash that alarmists decry

假如把通货膨胀计算在内的话,中国的国防开支每年只是以个位数在增长--几乎没有那些杞人忧天者所诽谤的说有大量现金投入。

-------------译者:亿万流辰-审核者:rumor四起------------

It's important to view China's arms spending in historical context. A quarter-century ago, Beijing's military was big and low-tech. In 1989, the PLA had 3.9 million people on its payroll — many of them leg infantry lacking vehicles and sophisticated weaponry. The army's main tank was a version of the Soviet T-55, a design dating to the early 1950s

在历史背景下审视中国军队是非常重要的。25年前北京的军队是冗杂而且技术水平低的。在1989年,PLA需要支付390万人的工资,他们中的许多人都缺少战车和复杂的武器,他们的主战坦克是模仿苏联的T-55制造的,一种十九世纪五十年代被设计出的坦克。  

The air force and navy were capable only of coastal defense. China had a single nuclear missile submarine, which was rumored to have caught fire and sunk in port.

空军和海军仅仅只够海岸防卫,中国也仅仅只有一种战略核潜艇,据说曾经在港口失火沉没。  

China was a poor country. Its GDP was $451 billion. By comparison, the USA's GDP in 1989 was $8.84 trillion. That year, Beijing spent $18.33 billion on defense. By comparison, the same year Japan spent $46.5 billion and tiny New Zealand, $1.8 billion. 中国当时也是一个贫穷的国家。1989年,GDP只有4510亿美元,相比之下,美国

8.84万亿。那一年,北京的军费支出是183.3亿美元,同一年,日本是463.3亿而小小的新西兰也有18亿美元的军费支出。

-------------译者:不拉几-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

China's 1989 defense budget amounted to spending $4,615 per soldier. At the same time, the United States appropriated $246,000 per individual service member.

中国1989年的防务预算总计在每个士兵花费4615美元。同时,美国每个军队成员的花费是246000美元。

In the late '80s, China's military doctrine still emphasized "People's War," a defensive strategy for drawing an enemy deep into the Chinese interior and then destroying him with conventional and guerrilla warfare. It was based on China's wartime experiences … and was totally inadequate.

八十年代后期,中国军队的信条还是强调“人民战争”,一种诱敌深入随后以常规游击战消灭敌人的防御性战略。这种基于中国战时经验的战略完全不合时宜。

In 1991, Beijing watched in shock and horror as a U.S.-led coalition easily smashed Saddam Hussein's Iraqi army and ejected it from Kuwait. An air campaign lasting several weeks and a ground offensive just 100 hours in duration destroyed a numerically superior Iraqi force.

1991年,北京在震惊之中目睹了美国为首的联军碾压了萨达姆的伊拉克军队并将其逐出科威特。持续几周的空中打击加上仅仅持续100小时的地面进攻就消灭了大批伊拉克的优势部队。

Suddenly, China's large, impoverished military looked like a liability.

突然间,中国大规模的,落后的军队看起来更像是一个负担。

-------------译者:Bryan-审核者:rumor四起------------

Beijing had a lot of work to do its  reforming armed forces. That required money. The good news for China was that, thanks to a booming economy, it actually didn't have to devote a larger share of national output to defense in order to invest more in competent troops and modern weaponry.

中国要重整军备还有很多工作要做。这需要财力。好消息是,得益于经济的快速发展,中国并不需要投入国家财政的很大部分来支撑其在军备和武器现代化上的竞争。

One way to look at defense spending is as a percentage of GDP. China's major neighbors, with the exception of Japan, allocate more to their militaries as a percentage of their respective GDPs. India allocates 2.5 percent, South Korea 2.8 percent, and Russia 4.1 percent. The United States, with the best-equipped military on the planet, spends 3.8 percent of its GDP on defense.

占GDP的份额是评价国防开支的一种方法。中国的主要邻国中,除了日本之外,在军备投入中所占各自GDP份额都要高于中国。印度占GDP的2.5%,韩国占GDP的2.8%,俄罗斯占GDP的4.1%。美国拥有这个星球上装备最好的军队,其国防开支占GDP的3.8%。

The paradox of China's military budget is that spending has risen even as defense's share of the economy has dropped. As a percentage of the economy, China's arms spending has actually fallen by a little more than 20 percent. Beijing spent 2.6 percent of GDP on defense in 1989. Between 2002 and 2010, it appropriated an average of 2.1 percent. In 2013, China's military budget accounted for just two percent of GDP.

中国军备预算谜题在于费用增加了但费用所占经济比重却降低了。中国的军备开支在所占经济的百分比上实际上已经降低了20多个百分点。中国1989年军备开支占GDP的2.6%。在2002年至2010年间,这个数值平均为2.1%。2013年,中国军备开支只占GDP的2%。

The PLA's slice of the economic pie has gotten smaller. It's just that the pie itself is much, much bigger than it was 25 years ago.

中国人民解放军在经济这块大蛋糕中分得的份额越来越少了。只是因为这块蛋糕本身很大,要比25年前要大得多。

-------------译者:Bryan-审核者:rumor四起------------

Public security  

公共安全



(China Photos/Getty Images)
By some calculations, in 2013 China spent more on "public security" — Internet censorship, law enforcement, and the paramilitary People's Armed Police — than it did on external defense. China's internal security budget for 2014 is a secret, leading to speculation that once again, the Chinese Communist Party is spending more to defend itself from its own people than from other countries.

据一些统计显示,2013年中国在公共安全方面开支---互联网审查制度,法制建设和准军事化的人民武装警察部队--高于外部防御开支。中国2014年的内部维稳预算是个谜,又引起了新一轮的猜测,中国共产党花费在对内维稳上的费用要多于对他国的防御。

The Party knows what it's doing. Many Chinese are unhappy living under a totalitarian regime. Environmental damage, labor abuses, corruption and, land grabs can — and do — quickly escalate into riots.

共产党知道自己在做什么。很多中国人对生活在一种极权政治之下很不满意。环境污染,劳动力滥用,腐败和土地掠夺能很快将之升级为骚乱。

On top of that, China must contend with low-level unrest in the far western province of Xinjiang — where ethnic Uighurs resent colonization by the rest of China — and in Tibet.

除此之外,中国必须对抗新疆局部小范围的动荡局势--居住于此的维吾尔族人怨恨被中国殖民,西藏也是一样。

-------------译者:Bryan-审核者:rumor四起------------

Under the status quo, China has no choice but to spend so heavily on public security. While that's bad for the Chinese people, it's actually a good thing for the region. Much of the military might that Beijing buys every year gets directed inward and never projects externally.

就现状而言,中国别无选择,只有在公共安全上开支更多。然而这对中国人民不说是个坏消息,实际上对该地区是个好事。中国每年很大一部分的军备开支将用于对内而不会有对外使用计划。

Matching U.S. military spending as a percentage of GDP would require China to spend 5.8 percent on internal and external defense. That's just not a realistic prospect. Only three countries devote that much of their economy to their armies — Saudi Arabia, Oman, and South Sudan.

以美国军备开支占GDP比重为例,中国对内对外防御开支需占其GDP的5.8%。那不是现实的预期。只有三个国家将其经济这么大部分用于军队--沙特阿拉伯,阿曼,南苏旦。

Moreover, the dollars China does spend on external military force don't stretch as far as most observers assume. "Throughout much of the post-1978 reform era, the real-world effects of China's nominal defense spending have been mitigated heavily by rampant inflation," wrote Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College.

另外,中国用于对外军备力量上所花费的美元并没有延伸得如观察家预计的那么远。“在1978年改革后的时期,中国名义上的国防开支的现实意义已经被不可控制的通货膨胀大大降低了”,美国海军战争学院教授安德鲁.埃里克森如是说。

-------------译者:掘地三千丈-审核者:rumor四起------------

In 2008, China's spent 14.9 percent more on defense than it did in 2007. But that 14.9-percent increase coincided with 7.8-percent inflation, resulting in a net military-budget boost of only 7.1 percent. In 2010, defense spending rose 7.8 percent and was devoured by a 6.7-percent inflation rate, for a net gain of just 1.1 percent.

2008年,中国在国防上比2007年多花了14.9%。但是与此同时有7.8%的通货膨胀,导致净军事预算增幅只有7.1%。2010年,国防花费增长7.8%但却被6.7%的通胀率抵消,仅有1.1%的净增长。

Adjusted for inflation, between 2004 and 2014, China's defense spending increased by an average of 8.3 percent in real terms. That's still a lot of money, particularly as defense spending has been falling in most of the West. But the PLA's budget isn't really growing by double digits, as many alarmists claim.

经过通货膨胀调整之后,2004至2014年间,中国国防支出实质上平均增长8.3%。那仍然是一大笔钱,特别是当大多数西方国家国防支出持续降低之时。但是解放军的预算确实不是像许多危言耸听者宣称的那样以两位数持续增长。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:rumor四起------------

PLA, Inc. and the 'rank factory'

解放军,涉商的“军衔工厂”



(Guang Niu/Getty Images)
Corruption is a huge and largely invisible problem for the PLA. Officials sell government property for their own profit. Contractors charge inflated fees for substandard work. Cronyism results in promotions for unqualified personnel.

腐败是解放军一个暗藏的严重问题,高官为了自己的利益出卖国有资产。承包商收取巨额费用却做出豆腐渣工程。任人唯亲使不合格的人得以晋升。

For years, the PLA generated extra income — and food staples — by farming and raising its own livestock. As China's economy took off, these survival efforts evolved into businesses. To farming and ranching, the PLA added hotels, theaters, and bars — the profits from which as often as not ended up in top officers' pockets.

曾好几年,解放军有额外的收入和食物选择——通过种植和畜牧。随着中国经济的提升,残存下来的已经发展成为商业。通过种植和畜牧的发展,解放军新增了酒店、影院和酒吧——这些利润往往被高官瓜分。

In 1998, the Chinese Communist Party ordered the PLA to cut ties with commercial enterprises in order to improve military readiness. An infantry unit didn't need to raise its own pork anymore — the defense budget could accommodate soldiers' food needs. Units could get on with the business of soldiering.

1998年,中国共产党为了提高军队的反应能力,切断了军队与商业企业的联系。兵团不再自给自足——国防预算会满足士兵的需求。兵团会专注于军事训练。

-------------译者:清风微幅-审核者:rumor四起------------

But instead of ending them, corrupt military leaders simply obscured their profit ventures.

非但不结束这些赢利的投机行为,腐败的军事领导人简单的进行了掩饰。 

The business of illegally selling military license plates to wealthy civilians has been a particularly lucrative one. Plate bearers — who are often civilians with only tangential connections to the PLA — mount red lights and sirens on their cars to push through regular street traffic. Holders are often entitled to free gasoline.

非法的出售军用牌照给富有的民众的利润是巨大的。军用牌照持有人是仅有的从平民到中国人们解放军的间接联系。装了警笛和警灯的车辆则可以在常规街道一口气通过,不用等待。警牌持有人经常有权去加免费的汽油。

The situation got so bad that in 2013, the PLA banned expensive imports — from Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Porsche, and Bentley — from having military license plates.

在2013年形势变得更加糟糕了,以至于中国人民解放军禁止昂贵的进口车辆挂上军用牌照,包括了奔驰,宝马,保时捷和宾利。

Beijing has occasionally cracked down on corrupt officers. In 2007, a judge handed down a suspended death sentence to Vice Adm. Wang Shouye for embezzling $25 million in PLA funds.

北京已经开始不定期的打击腐败官员。在2007年,法官因挪用公款两千五百万元对王守业副司令判处死缓

-------------译者:清风微幅-审核者:rumor四起------------

As deputy director of the PLA's General Logistics Department between 1997 and 2001, Wang was in a position to approve new military housing. The government accused Wang of receiving kickbacks from contractors

在1997年到2001之间,王守业在解放军解放军后勤总部任副主任,专门批准新的军事住房。政府指控在此期间王守业利用职务之便从承包商那里获得回扣。

Police arrested Wang in 2006 after the admiral refused blackmail demands from one of his many mistresses. Investigators found more than $8 million dollars stashed in microwave ovens and refrigerators in Wang's homes in Beijing and Nanjing and another $2.5 million in a washing machine. There was evidence of an additional $8 million in pilfered funds in Wang's bank accounts.

在2006年,警方在王守业众多情妇之一勒索海军上将后逮捕了他。调查局人员在王守业在北京和南京的家里的微波炉和冰箱里找到超过800万美元,另有250万美元在洗衣机中。有证据显示另有800万美元的赃款在王守业的银行账户中。

In March, police detained Xu Caihou, a retired general and former member of the powerful Central Military Commission, on allegations he made millions of dollars selling military ranks. Xu was in charge of high-level army promotions from 2004 to 2013.

在三月,警察以职务之便出手军衔贪污了数百美元的名义拘留了已经退役的将军,前中央军事为原副主席徐才厚。徐才厚从2004年到2013年之间一直掌管高级军队的升迁。

-------------译者:清风微幅-审核者:rumor四起------------

We don't know exactly how much money Xu made. However, the general's subordinate Gu Junshan — who is also in custody and under investigation — gave Xu's daughter a debit card worth $3.2 million as a wedding gift

我们不知道徐才厚挣多少钱。将军的下属谷俊山(也被拘留正在接受调查)给徐才厚的女儿320万美元的银行借记卡作为结婚贺礼。

Gu reportedly sold "hundreds" of military ranks. "If a senior colonel [not in line for promotion] wanted to become a major general, he had to pay up to $4.8 million," a source told Reuters.

据谷俊山供述,他卖了上百个军衔。有消息人士透露,“如果一个大校(不在晋升之列)想要成为少将,他最高必须得支付480万美元。”

That's a lot of money. In most professional militaries, such bribes wouldn't be worth it. But in the PLA, a payoff like that is an investment. The higher an officer's rank, the greater the opportunities for self-enrichment.

那是一大笔钱。在大多数职业军队中,不值得花这么多钱买一个军衔。但是在中国人民解放军中,这样的支付是一种投资。官的等级越高,自谋利润的机会越大。

-------------译者:清风微幅-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Daniel Hartnett, a China analyst at CNA Corporation, told War Is Boring that corruption could damage the PLA's military capabilities, not the least by "hinder[ing] the PLA's ability to develop its officer corps."

一名中国分析师哈特尼特说腐败会损害解放军的军事能力,至少会对解放军的军官水平造成伤害。

"If officers are purchasing promotions, as recent allegations have claimed, it could mean that those who should be promoted due to merit might not be. And those that are being promoted, shouldn't necessarily be," Hartnett said.

“如果军官购买军衔,正如最近所报道的那样,这意味着那些有能力的应该被升迁的没有得到升迁,而那些被升迁的人,都是不应该的升迁的,”哈特尼特说。

Graft could hurt the PLA in other ways, Hartnett explained. "Although PLA procurement processes are often a black box, it'd be a plausible conclusion that some — maybe even many — procurement decisions are not necessarily made with the PLA's best interests in mind. Purchase this item, and receive a kickback, even if that item is sub-quality or not necessarily need."

贪污会在其它方面损害中国人民解放军的实力,哈特尼特对此解释是,"尽管中国人民解放军的采购过程是不对外公布的,但是我们可以合理的猜想,一些甚至是更多采购的决定不是以人民解放军总体利益为目的去执行的。即使有些军用产品质量低下或者并不是很需要,他们也会购买,从而得到回扣。

-------------译者:清风微幅-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Corruption could also open a rift between the Chinese people and the PLA. "If the military is seen as a corrupt institution, as it was during the early 1980s in China, overall support for the PLA could be undermined," Hartnett said. "This would go heavily against the military's narrative that it is the keeper of [Chinese] honor and integrity that it has worked so hard to develop over the past two-plus decades.。"

腐败也可以使中国人民和中国解放军之间产生裂痕。哈特尼特说:“就像在1980年代初,在中国如果军方被看作是一个腐败的机构,人民对人民解放军的全面支持会被削弱。如此将对军队一直所宣称的解放军一直是中国荣誉和主权的捍卫者这一说法产生不利影响。”

Morale in the PLA officer corps has tanked in the wake of the Gu Junshan scandal, According to Reuters. "Many fear punishment. Those who are able but passed over for promotion are disgruntled."

根据路透社报道,谷俊山事件后,解放军军官的士气大减。“许多人担心惩罚。而那些有能力但因此错失晋升机会的人很不满。”

Since assuming office in 2013, Chinese president Xi Jinping has made the news several times urging the PLA to "prepare for combat." That might sound bellicose, but in light of the PLA's corruption problem, Xi could be telling officers to stop making money and just do their jobs.

自2013年晋升后,习近平经常在新闻上多次敦促人民解放军“准备战斗”。这听起来比较好战,但鉴于中国人民军解放军腐败问题,习近平主席可能是警告军队做好本职工作,禁止贪污。

"No country can defeat China," a leading PLA commissar wasquoted as saying in Foreign Policy. "Only our own corruption can destroy us and cause our armed forces to be defeated without fighting."

“没有国家可以战胜中国”,一个中国人民解放军政委在外交政策方面主要报道,“只有腐败才会打到我们,只是我们的军队儿被打败。”

-------------译者:storm111-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Museum pieces

老古董


(China Photos/Getty Images)

Despite a growing defense budget, China's arsenals still overflow with outdated equipment. The PLA possesses 7,580 main battle tanks — more than the U.S. Army. But only 450 of those tanks — the Type 98As and Type 99s — are anywhere near modern, with 125-millimeter guns, composite armor, modern suspension, and advanced fire control systems.

尽管防务预算不断增长,中国的武器库里仍旧塞满落后的装备。中国人民解放军拥有7580辆主战坦克——比美军还多。但是只有搭载着125mm火炮,复合装甲,现代化悬挂,和先进火控系统的450辆98As和99s坦克,才能说全方位地达到了现代水平。

All of America's roughly 5,000 M-1 tanks are modern.

而美国的5000多辆M1坦克都是现代化的。

The other 7,130 Chinese tanks — some of which are pictured here — are the same descendants of Soviet T-55s that comprised Beijing's armored force in the late 1980s … and were obsolete even then.

其余7130辆中国坦克——数据有水分——包括1980年代末组建的北京装甲部队的坦克,都是苏联T-55s的派生品··· 这种坦克放在当年也是过时的。

China also has a lot of fighter planes. Between the People's Liberation Army Air Force and the air arm of the People's Liberation Army Navy, China boasts no fewer than 1,321 fighter aircraft, an aerial armada only slightly smaller than America's.

中国还有很多战斗机。中国夸耀,中国人民解放军海空军共有不低于1321架的战斗机,这一数量仅比美国略少。

-------------译者:yyf3231766-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

But China's air forces likewise maintain mostly obsolete jets. Of 1,321 fighters, only 502 are modern — 296 variants of the Russian Su-27 and 206 J-10s of an indigenous design. The remaining 819 fighters — mostly J-7s, J-8s and Q-5s — are 1960s designs built in the 1970s. They wouldn't last long in a shooting war.

中国空军阵容中大部分都些过时的破烂飞机,总共1321架战斗机里只有502架现代点--其中包含296架毛子SU-27的复制品,206架本土设计的J10。其余819架都是些六七十年代设计制造的J7J8和强五,这些货根本就不能承担起长期战争的消耗。

The navy is in the best shape, but that's not saying much. The PLAN's destroyers and frigates are fairly new, but its first aircraft carrier Liaoning is a rebuilt Soviet ship from the 1980s. After a nine-year refit, Liaoning started sea trials in 2011.

中国海军阵容庞大,但是也就是这个优点能说说了。中国海军的驱逐舰和护卫舰比较新,但是唯一一艘新服役的航母辽宁号是翻修自俄国佬八十年代的船。经过九年的修理后,2011年第一次出海。

Liaoning is half the size of an American Nimitz-class supercarrier and carries half as many planes. As Liaoning lacks a catapult, China's J-15 naval fighters must use a ski ramp to take off — and that limits their payload and range. Liaoning lacks the radar and refueling planes that give American flattops their long-range striking power.

辽宁号航母的尺寸和载机量均只有美国尼米兹超级航母的一半。同时辽宁号没有弹射器,J15战斗机通过滑跃甲板起飞,这就限制了飞机的载弹量和航程。另外辽宁号上没有美国航母进行远程打击时最重要的装备---预警机和加油机。

-------------译者:hlgzxwsc-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Submarines are another problem area for the PLAN. Just over half of China's 54 submarines are modern — that is, built within the last 20 years. Beijing's modern undersea fleet includes the Shang, Han, Yuan, and Song classes. All four classes are Chinese-built. All are markedly inferior to Western designs.

潜艇是中国海军的另一个问题。中国的54艘潜艇中只约超过一半的是现代化的—就是说,在过去的20年内建造的。北京的现代海洋舰队包括商、汉、元和宋等级别。以上四级都是由中国制造的,均明显不如西方设计的。

The rest of China's submarines, especially its 1980s-vintage Mings, are totally obsolete.

中国的其他潜艇,尤其是上世纪80年代的明级,已经完全过时了。

The PLAN halted production of the nuclear-powered Shang class after only building just three boats — an ominous sign. Moreover, Beijing has placed an order with Russia for up to four Kalina-class subs, signalling a lack of faith in local designs.

中国海军在只建了3艘潜艇后,停止了使用核动力的商级的生产—一个不祥之兆。此外,北京已经向俄罗斯订购了多达四艘卡琳娜级潜艇,这是对自主设计缺乏信心的信号。

-------------译者:不拉几-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Unknown unknowns

未知的未知



(Guang Niu/Getty Images)
One of the most visible signs of China's military rise is all the new, locally-designed and -produced hardware. Beijing is building new ships, aircraft, drones and tanks that, on the outside, appear to be matches for Western weapons. But we know very little about China's homemade weaponry. Specifically, we don't know if any of it really works.

中国军力上升的一个最明显的迹象就是那些自主研发制造的新装备。北京正在建造外观上看起来匹敌西方武器的新式舰船、飞机、无人机和坦克。但是我们对这些中国国产武器性能知之甚少。特别是不知道它们是不是真的有用。

In an early effort to modernize the PLA, in the 1980s China strengthened ties with Western defense contractors. Beijing bought helicopters, aircraft, engines, naval electronics, and munitions. Then, in 1989, the Chinese government massacred pro-democracy students near Tiananmen Square in the heart of Beijing. The U.S. and Europe promptly imposed an arms embargo.

1980年代,作为早期解放军现代化努力的一部分,中国强化了与西方国防企业的联系。北京购买了直升机,固定翼飞机,引擎,海军电子设备,以及弹药。后来随着中国政府在天安门广场屠杀支持民主的学生,美欧迅速地执行了武器禁令。

China turned to Russia, but Russia would rather sell finished products to China than help its neighbor develop its own industry. Beijing realized it would have to develop weaponry all on its own.

中国转向俄国寻求帮助,但比起帮扶邻国的工业,俄国更希望出售成品。北京意识到它需要自力更生。

-------------译者:不拉几-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

That's not easy. In all the world, only the United States still has the technology, expertise, and industrial capacity to develop all of its own military hardware. It's very, very expensive.

那并不容易。放眼全球,只有美国仍然拥有自造全部军事装备的技术,专家团队和工业能力。这非常非常昂贵。

Many of China's "new" weapons are actually foreign designs that Beijing's state companies have licensed, stolen, or painstakingly reverse-engineered. The Changhe Z-8 helicopter was originally the French Super Frelon. The Harbin Z-9 scout helicopter started life as the Eurocopter Dauphin. The Type 99 tank is an updated Soviet T-72.
 

许多中国的“新”武器实际上是中国国有企业被授权,或者窃取,或者煞费苦心地逆向工程得到的外国设计。昌河 Z-8 直升机,原版就是法国的超黄蜂。哈尔滨的Z-9侦查直升机山寨自欧洲海豚直升机。99式坦克是升级版的苏联T-72.

To be sure, not all of the PLA's new hardware is a knock-off. But "homemade" does not necessarily equal "good." In many cases, we can only guess at the weapon's quality. After all, China has no free press.

当然,解放军不是所有的装备都是山寨品。但是“国产”不一定等于“优质”。许多情况下,我们只能猜测这些武器的性能。毕竟中国没有出版自由。

-------------译者:横一文字-审核者:此地无银三百两-----------

The J-20 stealth fighter prototype, for example, has flown scores of test flights since first appearing in late 2010. The large, angular plane appears to boast long range and a large payload, but its stealthiness is hard to gauge. Its avionics, aerodynamic controls, weapons, and sensors — and especially its engines — are equally questionable.

例如,自从2010年底现身以来,歼20的原型机已经经过多次试飞。这个庞大、笨拙的飞机看上去有着引以为傲的航程和载弹量,但是其隐身性能很难估计。它的航空电子设备、气动控制、武器和传感器,特别是发动机,都值得令人怀疑。

The J-20's designers appear to be waiting on new, Chinese-developed engines to replace the prototype's Russian-made AL-31Ns. China has been working on those engines, without visible success, since the early 1990s.

歼20的设计者们似乎还在等待新的国产发动机用来取代歼20原型机上安装的俄制发动机AL-31N。中国从90年代初就致力于研制这些国产发动机,即使成功难以预见

It's important to remember that America's latest F-35 Joint Strike Fighter first flew in 2006 and won't be ready for combat until 2016. The United States has experience developing stealth fighters; China does not. If we allow China 10 years from first flight to combat readiness, the J-20 won't be a front-line fighter until 2021. At the earliest.


我们要知道美国最新的F35联合攻击战斗机最初试飞是在2006年,并且在2016年之前无法做好战斗准备。美国在这之前有制造隐形战机的经验,而中国并没有。如果给中国10年的时间研制隐形战机到做好战斗准备,那么歼20至少在2021年之前都无法成为前线战斗机。

-------------译者:yyf3231766-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

The specifications of the PLAN's Type 052C/D air-defense destroyers make them seem very similar to Western warships, such as the U.K.'s Darings or the American Arleigh Burkes. But we don't know how difficult the ships were to build, how well their air-defense system works with the associated phased-array radar or how accurate and reliable the ships' missiles are.

中国海军的052CD型防空驱逐舰外观看上去很像英国的45型和美国的阿利伯克,但是我们对这型战舰的建造过程一无所知,鬼知道他们的相控阵雷达和防空系统工作是否靠谱,导弹准头如何。

When it comes to developing arms, China is starting out far behind Russia and the West and is struggling to catch up. And we must not forget that the very government developing all this hardware is also the only source of information about the new gear. For now, it's wise to be skeptical of Chinese weaponry.

研发武器的时候,中国习惯性的跟着俄国人和西方的后面吃屁,由于武器装备的水平可以很好的反映出中国在军队硬件建设方面的水平,因此,我们有必要用怀疑的眼光看待中国的武器发展。

-------------译者:yyf3231766-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Neighborhood watch

监视邻国



(Guang Niu/Pool/Getty Images)
China's aggressive behavior, in the East and South China Seas has prompted many of its neighbors to band together or seek the support of larger, more powerful allies. Japan is the hub for many of these of these cooperative agreements.

中国在南海和东海的一系列侵略行为使得邻国不得不寻求强大国家的帮助,他们紧密团结在以脚盆为核心的反华中央周围。

Politically and constitutionally limited in what kind of direct action it can take to counter China, Japan is building relationships with China's other disgruntled neighbors and with Western powers. Tokyo is currently in talks with Australia, the U.K., India, Indonesia, The Philippines, Vietnam, Canada, and the U.S.

地缘和政治是对抗中国的一个有效办法,脚盆正在与那些和中国有领土纠纷的国家和西方势力勾搭,比如澳大利亚、英国、印度、印尼、菲律宾、越南、加拿大和美国。

Logistics cooperation, co-development of military equipment, intelligence sharing, joint exercises, and security-related aid are all on the table.

战略合作、共同开发武器、情报分享、联合演习还有安全互助都纳入了与这些国家的讨论。

Vietnam, a historical enemy of China, has begun building a military specifically tailored to counter the PLA. It has procured Russian Su-27 and Su-30 fighters and four Gepard frigates. Vietnam has even bought its first submarines — six Improved Kilo diesel-electrics from Russia that are more advanced than the Chinese navy's own Kilos.

越南,这个中国的老冤家,开始为了对抗中国建设武装力量,除了从俄国采购SU27与SU30战斗机和四艘猎豹护卫舰以外,越南还从俄国买了六艘改进型基洛级柴电潜艇,这些潜艇比中国的基洛级要更加先进。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Hanoi is strengthening foreign ties. India will train Vietnam's submariners. Vietnam has also hinted at letting foreign fleets use the harbor at Cam Ranh Bay, but is likely holding back as that would be a serious provocation to China.

河内正在强化对外关系。印度将培训越南的潜艇兵,越南也暗示让外国使用他们的金兰湾军港,但似乎因为会被视为对中国的严重挑衅而暂时搁浅

The Philippines, locked in a standoff with China over the Ayungin Shoal, has begun rebuilding its navy and air force, purchasing retired U.S. Coast Guard cutters for its navy and a dozen South Korean TA-50 light fighters for the air force. Manila has agreed to host American facilities — and American troops — on its military bases.

菲律宾,因仁爱礁和中国僵持着,已经开始重建他的海空军,从美国购买退役的海岸警卫队舰艇,并为空军购买了十多架南韩的 TA-50轻型飞机。马尼拉已经允诺给美国军事设施及其士兵进驻其军事基地

Asia probably won't assemble a new NATO-like alliance in the near future. China's opponents aren't willing to accept such close military integration. Most are unwilling to fight for someone else. Many of these countries, despite being wary of Chinese aggression, still have strong economic ties to Beijing.

亚洲在近年可能不会建成一个像北约那要的组织。中国的对手不愿意加入如此紧密的军事集团。大部分国家并不愿意为其他任一个国家战斗。这些国家中的大部分虽然对中国的侵略很警觉,但依然和中国有着紧密的经济关系。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Still, the level of cooperation would complicate any military moves by China. Not that Beijing necessarily intends to invade … anyone. Ever. Military, diplomatic and economic power are intertwined forces that enable a government to shape its environment — peacefully and against a rival's will.

更何况,这种合作会因中国的军事行动而变得复杂多变。并不是说北京必然打算入侵哪一个国家。军事,外交和经济的力量组合在一起就能形成一个环境——和平但也可以压制对手。。 

The big question is, when does China catch up to America militarily?

那么问题来了~~~什么时候中国的军事实力能赶上美国呢?

Never.

永远不能。

"China will grow old before it gets rich" is, by now, a cliche among China-watchers. But it's true. The same demographic wave that has gifted China with an abundance of labor will soon also transform the country into the world's biggest retirement home.

“中国在变富之前就已经老了”,现在这个在中国观察家中已经是陈词滥调了。但这是真的。人口调查同样昭示中国曾经的大量劳动力将把中国变成世界上最大的养老院。

Beijing's "one-child" policy has sharpened the trend. Today China has 16 retirees per 100 workers. Projections see that increasing to 64 retirees per 100 workers by 2050, resulting a much grayer population than in America.

北京的“独生子女”正常加快了这一进程。现在中国退休人口为16%,预测到2050年将达到64%,这比美国严重的多。

This has indirect — but serious — implications for China's defense. Most Chinese do not have retirement benefits and in their old age must rely on personal savings or family … a difficult proposition when there is only one child to take care of two parents.

这将影响中国的防务,虽然是间接的,但很严重。大部分中国人没有退休金,老来只能依赖个人积蓄或家庭,,,一个孩子需要照顾两位老人,这个境况有些困难。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

If Beijing wants to preserve household savings and productivity, it will have to build some kind of social welfare system. And that means making some difficult choices.

如果北京想要维持居民储备和生产力水平,他必须建立一些社会保障系统。但这意味着要做一些困难的选择。

China's borders are secure. The U.S., Japan, and India cannot bring down the Chinese government. But tens of millions of desperate Chinese families could do so — and just might, if Beijing can't find some way to care for them as they age.

中国的疆土是安全的。美国,日本和印度不能扳倒中国政府。但无数不顾一切的中国家庭可以做到——如果北京不能找到一些办法解决老龄化的问题的话,这是有可能发生的。

China has nuclear weapons. It's ruled by a deeply nationalistic, authoritarian regime with a history of brutality towards its own citizens. It has territorial claims that clash with those of other countries — and a defense budget rising by 8 percent annually. It's wise to keep a watchful eye on China.

中国有核武器。这掌控在一个曾经无情镇压人民的极端民族主义,独裁主义政府上。他和其他国家有着领土纠纷——每一年的国防预算增长8%。时刻警惕中国是一个正确的选择。

Yet China is a hobbled giant with many deep, systemic problems. Some of these problems — particularly the technological ones — are solvable. The demographic issue is not. And it's the biggest reason the paper dragon does not pose a major threat to the rest of the world over the long term.

中国是一个有着很多深层和系统性问题的蹒跚巨人。一些问题,特别是技术性的问题是可以解决的。而人口的问题则不然。这是中国不能对世界其他国家形成重要威胁,而只是一个纸火龙的最重要原因。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

mrcasual77 Sam • 8 hours ago
The Chinese haven't fought anyone in a very long time. Their people/soldiers aren't accustomed to war nor are they battle hardened. They can spend all the money in the world on planes, subs, bombs, but boots on the ground win wars. Compare this to the US where we are constantly fighting, testing our equipment in real life combat scenarios, & have the intelligence to build superior plans.

中国已经很久没和哪个国家打仗了。他们的人民/士兵远疏战场并且毫无经验可言。他们可以花费巨资在飞机、潜艇、炸弹上,但决定战争胜负的还是人。与此形成鲜明对比的是美国连年征战,可以在实战中测试我们的装备,并且还有情报来建立完美的计划。

Shooi Dan Tom mrcasual77 • 6 hours ago
That s right. Keep the knife sharp. The US is building new,
improved castles and chain link fence to protect its borders.

 对,要保持剑时刻锋利。美国正在建一张新的、更好的保护网来保护边界。

ties Shooi Dan Tom • 5 hours ago
have we really started to protect our boarders?????

我们真的已经开始保护我们的边界了??

-------------译者:hlgzxwsc-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Anonymous Shooi Dan Tom • 2 hours ago
Form whom? From people that are no threat, only darker skinned?

为什么要保护边界?他们根本不是威胁,只因为他们肤色更深吗?

Anonymous Shooi Dan Tom • 2 hours ago
Racism 101.

种族主义101.

Gary Sung mrcasual77 • 6 hours ago
The people you fight are not on the same level, it is true that US has spent tons of money to test the equipment in real combats, many innocent people were killed because of your "Tests".

与你对抗的人并不都是同一级别的,实际上美国已经花了很多钱在实战中测试装备,许多无辜的人因为你的“测试”而被杀害。

ties mrcasual77 • 5 hours ago
I agree that America is in war always... but a American soldier would have to kill over 200 each to match up. America has been a bully and many countries will join China ,Not that they would need to . After what America did in Ukraine I am sure Russia and china and Iran will be together ... And without nukes Iran would beat America by them self's.... Iran is no Iraq.. The reason America is bombing so many countries is for money... The war corporations are partly owned by members in the government and then they also get kickbacks called soft money ,,, And in most cases the taxpayer pays the bill.. Is a win, win for our criminal government...

我同意美国总是处于战争中……但一个美国士兵将会杀死超过200人。美国已经成了一个恶霸,很多国家将站在中国那一边,当然他们也不一定要这么做。在美国于乌克兰的所作所为后,我确定俄罗斯与中国和伊朗将会站在一起……没有核武器的话伊朗自己就能击败美国……伊朗不是伊拉克…美国轰炸这么多国家的原因就是为了钱…一部分战争公司是属于政府成员的,他们也将得到回扣…在大多数情况下纳税人支付账单…对于政府里的犯罪人员来说这是双赢啊。

-------------译者:hlgzxwsc-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Guest ties • 3 hours ago
You need a new crack dealer.

你需要一个新毒贩

Martin ties • 37 minutes ago
Your comment is one of the most ignorant piece of s*** comments I've ever seen on the internet. That is saying a lot, btw.

你是我在网上见过的最无知的评论之一。顺便说一句已经说了很多了。

Sam mrcasual77 • 5 hours ago
Yeah people said the same thing about the Japanese before they beat Russia.

是的,在日本击败俄国之前人们也说了同样的话。

Anonymous Sam • 2 hours ago
That was Japan, not China.

那是日本,不是中国。

guest mrcasual77 • an hour ago
The last war in China happened in 1989,with Vietnam.In all Chinese opinion,American soliders are juest paper tiger.They donnot have the ball to start a war which wil destory the all humankind.But we Chinese have the ability and willing, because all of them donnot care whether the civlization exsit. Mao Zedong teach all Chinese, the earth can be destroyed.The key to win is the population.

中国的上一次战争发生在1989年,同越南。在所有中国人的观念里,美国士兵只是纸老虎。他们不会冒着毁灭全人类的风险发动战争。但是我们中国有能力和意愿,因为他们都不关心文明的存亡。毛泽东告诉所有的中国人,地球可以被毁灭,获胜的关键是人口。

-------------译者:dengdelt-审核者:此地无银三百两------------

Tired of the bias Sam • 7 hours ago
It is true. They are like the former Soviet Union. All through the 80s all we heard from the media was how far ahead Russia was. Now that more and more KGB docs become declassified, we see how far back their tech really was. This is not WWII. Numbers alone will not cut it.

确实是这样。他们就像前苏联。虽然我们在80年代总会从媒体那听到苏联多么领先我们。现在越来越多克格勃档案被公开,我们发现他们的科技是多么落后啊。现在不是第二次世界大战那个以量取胜的年代了。

Jivin2001 Tired of the bias • 6 hours ago
Finally an intelligent comment.

最后那个评论真睿智

johnclaymore2000 Tired of the bias • 2 hours ago
1970's Soviet union could have easily beat America.

1970年那会苏联能轻易打败美国。

Anonymous Tired of the bias • 2 hours ago
They may be bigger, but not badder.

他们规模可能更大,但并不因此而更可怕。

Wake Sam • 4 hours ago
Note that the article was written by a Japanese who are perhaps not the finest judges of military ability. After they had to resort to kamikaze attacks on air, land and sea, it pretty much demonstrated that their judgements in matters of large wars were deficient regardless of their bravery and ability in man to man combat.

 既然这篇文章出自日本人,也许他的军事判断能力不怎么样。毕竟他们曾经依赖自杀性的神风队来攻击空中、海上和陆地的目标,不管这种方式多么的无畏,也不能掩盖他们对大规模战争的判断有很大问题。

-------------译者:横一文字-审核者:storm111------------

Stephen Stone • 11 hours ago
You've lost your feeble mind. Please don't run for president-congress-supreme court, or any position of decision making power. Please!

你连最基本的思维能力都没有了。请千万不要去竞选总统、国会、最高法院或者其他任何有决策权的职位。拜托了。

the fox Stephen Stone • 9 hours ago
But he gained a good one by publishing the right article.

(答楼上)但他通过发表右翼文章获得了一个好的位置。

Sam • 11 hours ago
Is Japan a paper tiger as well? hmm Mizokami-san? Or is Japan just a US puppet?

日本也是一只纸老虎吗?hmm Mizokami-san(好像是作者的名字)? 或者说日本只是美国的狗?

Roger Davis Sam • 9 hours ago
Yes, CHINA is the " Best". The best of " High-Tech Stealing". For China people gene: No Ally, only Slave. So, if you want to be a China slave ? Just play with them. The Best and Smartest Behavior of China is: ALL THE WORLD KNOW ..CHINA IS UNHUMAN...ONLY AGGRESSION. That why you see " CHINA TOWN " in any corner of the planet. But, have you ever seen any " AMERICAN TOWN" in the world ? Just answer this question.

(答楼上)是的。中国是最棒的,最棒的山寨之王。中国人的思维:不要同盟,只要奴隶。所以,如果你想成为中国人的奴隶,就尽管和他们一起玩吧。全世界都知道中国人是没有人性的,他们最擅长最喜欢的做的事就是侵略。这就是为什么你在世界任何地方都能看到唐人街的原因。但是,你在哪儿看到过美国街吗?回答我这个问题。
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